谢选骏：福山不像一个历史学家

网文《斯坦福的政治学家福山教授于2022年3月12日对俄国入侵乌克兰的局势的未来发展做出十点预测》报道：

导言

斯坦福的政治学家福山教授曾经预言民主制度的胜出，被认为预言不准。他于2022年3月12日对俄国入侵乌克兰的局势的未来发展做出他称为“斗胆冒昧”的系列预测。以下是他的原文翻译。

 

导言 

斯坦福的政治学家福山教授曾经预言民主制度的胜出，被认为预言不准。他于2022 年3 月12 日对俄国入侵乌克兰的局势的未来发展做出他称为  “斗胆冒昧” 的系列预测。以下是他的原文翻译。 

 

Preparing for Defeat 

Francis Fukuyama 

10 Mar 2022, 4:03 pm 

 

我斗胆冒昧对乌克兰局势，做几个预言。 

 

I’m writing this from Skopje, North Macedonia, where I’ve been for the last week  teaching one of our Leadership Academy for Development courses. Following the Ukraine war is no different here in terms of available information, except that I’m in an adjacent time zone, and the fact that there is more support for Putin in the Balkans than in other parts of Europe. A lot of the latter is due to Serbia, and Serbia's hosting of Sputnik. 

 

I’ll stick my neck out and make several prognostications: 

 

1. 俄罗斯在乌克兰正走向彻底的失败。俄罗斯的计划是一个低能产品，基于一个错误的假设，即乌克兰人对俄罗斯钟情好感，他们的军队会在俄罗斯入侵后立即崩溃。俄罗斯士兵显然为他们在基辅的胜利游行携带了礼服制服，而不是额外的弹药和口粮。普京此时已将其整个军队的大部分投入到这次行动中——没有庞大的储备部队可以被他调用来增加战斗力。俄罗斯军队被困在乌克兰的各个城市之外，他们面临着巨大的供应问题和乌克兰的不断攻击。 

 

Russia is heading for an outright defeat in kraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based  on  a  flawed  assumption  that  Ukrainians  were  favorable  to  Russia  and  that  their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside  various  Ukrainian  cities  where  they  face  huge  supply  problems  and  constant Ukrainian attacks.  

2. 俄军阵列的崩溃可能是突然和灾难性的，而不是通过消耗战慢慢发生。野战中的军队将达到一个既不能补给也不能撤退的地步，士气也会蒸发全无。这至少在北方是如此；俄国人在南方做得更好，但如果北方崩溃，南方的军队将很难维持。 

 

The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly  through  a  war  of  attrition.  The  army  in  the  field  will  reach  a  point  where  it  can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize. This is at least true in the north; the Russians are doing better in the south, but those positions would be hard to maintain if the north collapses. 

 

3. 在俄军崩溃的情况发生之前，没有任何用外交谈判解决战争的可能性，因为鉴于俄罗斯和乌克兰目前各自所遭受的损失，没有任何可以想象的折中方案能让他们接受。 

 

There is no diplomatic solution to the war possible prior to this happening. There is no conceivable compromise that would be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine given the losses they have taken at this point. 

 

4. 联合国安理会再次被证明是无用的。唯一有帮助的是联合国大会投票，这有助于识别世界上的存心不良或推诿责任的作为方。

The United Nations Security Council has proven once again to be useless. The only helpful thing was the General Assembly vote, which helps to identify the world’s bad or prevaricating actors. 

 

5. 拜登政府不宣布禁飞区或帮助转送波兰米格机的决定都是好的；他们在一个非常情绪化的时期保持了清醒。让乌克兰人自己打败俄罗斯人要好得多，使莫斯科失去了北约攻击他们的借口，同时也避免了所有明显的战争升级可能性。特别是波兰的米格机不会给乌克兰的作战能力增色多少。更重要的是持续供应标枪、毒刺、TB2s、医疗用品、通讯设备和情报共享。我认为，乌克兰部队已经获得北约在乌克兰境外的情报部门的引导了。 

 

The Biden administration’s decisions not to declare a no-fly zone or help transfer Polish MiGs were both good ones; they've kept their heads during a very emotional time. It is much better to have the Ukrainians defeat the Russians on their own, depriving Moscow of  the  excuse  that  NATO  attacked  them,  as  well  as  avoiding  all  the  obvious escalatory possibilities. The Polish MiGs in particular would not add much to Ukrainian capabilities. Much more important is a continuing supply of Javelins, Stingers, TB2s, medical supplies, comms  equipment,  and  intel  sharing.  I  assume  that  Ukrainian  forces  are  already  being vectored by NATO intelligence operating from outside Ukraine. 

 

6. 当然，乌克兰所付出的代价是巨大的。对乌克兰受到的最大的损害是由俄军的火箭弹和大炮造成的，无论是波兰提供米格机还是北约设立禁飞区都无法对此有多大的阻止。唯一能阻止屠杀的是击败地面上的俄罗斯军队。

The cost that Ukraine is paying is enormous, of course. But the greatest damage is being done by rockets and artillery, which neither MiGs nor a no-fly zone can do much about. The only thing that will stop the slaughter is defeat of the Russian army on the ground.  

7. 普京不会在他的军队被击败后幸存下来。他得到支持是因为他被认为是一个强人；一旦他表现出无能并被剥夺了胁迫他人的权力，他还有什么价值呢？ 

 

Putin will not survive the defeat of his army. He gets support because he is perceived to be a strongman; what does he have to offer once he demonstrates incompetence and is stripped of his coercive power? 

8. 入侵已经对世界各地的民粹主义者造成了巨大的伤害，在袭击之前，他们一致表示同情普京。这包括萨尔维尼、博尔索纳罗、泽莫尔、勒庞、奥尔班，当然还有特朗普。此次战争中的政治表现暴露了他们公开的威权主义倾向。 

 

The invasion has already done huge damage to populists all over the world, who prior to the  attack  uniformly  expressed  sympathy  for  Putin.  That  includes  Matteo  Salvini,  Jair Bolsonaro, Éric Zemmour, Marine Le Pen, Viktor Orbán, and of course Donald Trump. The politics of the war has exposed their openly authoritarian leanings. 

9. 战争进行到这一步，对中国来说是一堂很好的课。 和俄罗斯一样，中国也建立了近十年看似高科技的军事力量，却没有战斗力经验。俄罗斯空军的悲惨表现可能会被复制——中国人民解放军空军同样没有管理复杂空中作战的经验。我们可能希望中国领导层不要像俄罗斯人在考虑未来对台湾采取行动时那样自欺欺人。

The war to this point has been a good lesson for China. Like Russia, China has built up seemingly  high-tech  military  forces  in  the  past  decade,  but  they  have  no  combat experience. The miserable performance of the Russian air force would likely be replicated by the People’s Liberation Army Air Force, which similarly has no experience managing complex air operations. We may hope that the Chinese leadership will not delude itself as  to  its  own capabilities  the  way  the  Russians  did  when  contemplating  a  future move against Taiwan. 

 

10. 希望台湾自己能清醒过来，准备好像乌克兰人一样战斗——已经完成了，恢复征兵。我们不要过早地成为失败主义者。 

 

Hopefully Taiwan itself will wake up as to the need to prepare to fight as the Ukrainians have done, and restore conscription. Let’s not be prematurely defeatist. 

 

11.  土耳其的无人机将成为畅销品。 

Turkish drones will become bestsellers. 

 

12.  俄罗斯的失败将使 "自由的新生" 成为可能，并使我们摆脱对全球民主衰落状态的迷茫。1989年的精神将继续存在，这要感谢一群勇敢的乌克兰人。

 

A Russian defeat will make possible a “new birth of freedom,” and get us out of our funk about the declining state of global democracy. The spirit of 1989 will live on, thanks to a bunch of brave Ukrainians. 

谢选骏指出：美籍日人福山不像一个历史学家，而像一个“釜山的战斗观察员”——因为他只看战术，不看战略。而在我看来，俄罗斯即使占领了乌克兰，也无法突围——因为东正教和马裂叫的使命都已经终结了。当然啦，这并非黑马分子（黑格尔-马克思的德国匪帮）所谓的“历史的终结”。历史将继续，正如我的“《周易》的历史哲学”一书所示，“既济”之后还是“未济”。