《欧洲和加拿大必须忘记特朗普，组成一个愿意保卫乌克兰的联盟》（2024年11月19日）報道：
文、学、政、军四界代表八十人联名公开信，呼吁欧洲和加拿大组建意愿联盟保卫乌克兰
11月19日，80名来自欧洲与加拿大文化界、学术界、政界和军界代表发表联名公开信，呼吁欧洲与加拿大绕开美国重新结盟，共同保卫乌克兰。
联名信称，新抗俄同盟既可加入由波兰发起的意愿联盟，也可加入由英国领导的联合远征军。
联名信呼吁，新抗俄同盟应采取五大步骤以保卫乌克兰：
1. 武装乌克兰以取得胜利：联盟可通过以下方式为乌克兰获取胜利所需资源：从自身库存调配、在开放市场采购、以及技术转让和投资乌克兰本土国防工业。联盟应当重点关注赢得战争的能力，包括（不限目标）远程精确打击、电子战、指挥与控制、情报、监视和侦察等能力以及抵消俄罗斯传统优势的新兴国防技术与包括火炮、155毫米弹药、防空、反舰和反坦克系统和弹药等在内的基础需求。
2. 没收所有被冻结的俄罗斯资产以资助乌克兰取得胜利：没收被冻结的俄罗斯资产在经济上可行，亦符合国际“反制措施”原则的法律框架，并能够建立对未来侵略行为的经济威慑。冻结俄罗斯资产总额高达3000亿美元，是2022年以来美国对乌克兰军事援助的四倍，约占迄今西方援助总额的75%。全额没收这些资产将是为乌克兰提供防卫资金的最佳方式，同时还能重创俄罗斯士气。加拿大已经制定相关法律，而大多数被冻结的资产集中在欧洲。联盟国家应毫不迟疑地没收其司法管辖内的俄国资产，从而为其他北约盟友设立明确的先例。
3. 扩大乌克兰西部防空覆盖范围，以保护地面联盟部队：部署在联盟国家或交付至乌克兰邻国的防空设施，可以为乌克兰西部提供保护屏障，以减轻乌克兰防空系统压力。俄国导弹和无人机正飞向我们边境，我们不能允许这样的事情发生。联盟国家亦可利用这一屏障将自身部队部署到地面（法国总统马克龙曾提出过相关设想），以帮助训练乌克兰军队、提供后勤和排雷支持、以及执行其他任务，以展现我们对乌克兰胜利与安全的承诺。
4. 提供包括共同防御在内的真正安全保障，以协助乌克兰加入北约：正如瑞典和芬兰在等待北约成员资格期间需要强大伙伴提供安全保障一样，乌克兰也需要这样的支持。联盟可承诺，在当前敌对行动结束后的过渡时期为乌克兰提供共同防御。联盟可利用这一时期提升乌克兰与北约的互操作性与协作能力，以加速其加入北约的进程，并使之更加强大。明确的联盟承诺，配以日益增强的防卫能力，将有效威慑未来俄罗斯对乌克兰和我们的攻击。
5. 展现我们捍卫自己的能力：联盟成员可承诺每年将国防开支至少提高至各自GDP的3%，并且通过共同借贷等方式联合采购欧洲和加拿大所缺乏的关键军事装备。但战争与我们的信誉也须在其他战线上取得胜利。欧洲和加拿大的经济优势须被有效地利用起来，通过战略性目标实现真正影响力。该联盟应采取行动，收紧并执行制裁，但同时也要努力在经济上打败俄罗斯，加大压力以瘫痪其摇摇欲坠的战争机器。联盟须向中国表明，其对俄罗斯战争的支持是不可接受的，联盟也是不能用金钱来收买的。
ARGUMENT
War in Ukraine
‘Europe and Canada Must Forget Trump and Form a Coalition of the Willing to Defend Ukraine’
Senior politicians, military leaders and experts send an open letter calling on Europe and Canada to join forces in defending Ukraine from Russian aggression
Benjamin Tallis
19 November 2024
Protest against Russia’s war against Ukraine. Photo: DLugowski / Alamy
YOUR SUPPORT MATTERS:
SIGN UP TO EMAILS
SUBSCRIBE TO BYLINE TIMES
SHARE THIS:
Threads
Bluesky
Player Image
Byline Times
'Europe and Canada Must Forget Trump and Form a Coalition of the Willing to Defend Ukraine'
18 分鐘
Listen to this article
18 分鐘
Byline Times is an independent, reader-funded investigative newspaper, outside of the system of the established press, reporting on ‘what the papers don’t say’ – without fear or favour.
To support its work, subscribe to the monthly Byline Times print edition, packed with exclusive investigations, news, and analysis.
Help us build the better media Britain deserves
Instead of worrying about Donald Trump, Europeans and Canadians should follow the lead of Donald Tusk. When the going gets tough, the tough get going. While many are anxiously waiting to see what Trump will do, Poland’s Prime Minister has followed expert advice and called for a coalition of willing states to secure Ukraine and deter further Russian aggression.
It’s not hard to imagine such a coalition, pioneered by the states that have been clearest about the Russian threat and the need to secure Ukraine to forge a stable Euro-Atlantic security order. Poland could be joined by the Baltic states, Nordic Countries, the UK, France, Canada and the Netherlands. The UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force could be extended to form a vanguard, but ultimately the format matters less than the actions they take. By changing policy and facts on the ground, the coalition would spur others to join them and embrace Europeans’ and Canadians’ power to defend ourselves and our interests, regardless of what the US does.
Here, we propose five things that a European-Canadian coalition of the willing should – and can – do:
Arm Ukraine to Win: The coalition can get Ukraine what it needs to win: from their own stocks, procurement on the open market as well as, most cost effectively, by technology transfer to and investment in Ukraine’s own defence industry. The coalition’s focus should be on war-winning capabilities including long-range precision strike (with no restrictions on targeting), electronic warfare, command and control, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities, as well as emerging defence technologies that offset traditional Russian advantages, and core basics like artillery, 155mm ammunition, anti-air, anti-ship and anti-tank systems and munitions.
Seize ALL the frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s victory: Confiscating frozen Russian assets is economically feasible, legal under the international principle of countermeasures – and would establish a financial deterrent to future aggression. The $300 billion of frozen assets is four times US military aid to Ukraine since 2022 and roughly 75% of total Western assistance to date. Seizing the full amount would be the best way to get Ukraine the money it needs to defend itself and seriously degrade Russian morale. Canada has ready legislation and most of these frozen assets are in Europe. The coalition states should seize those in their jurisdiction without delay, to set a clear precedent that other NATO allies can follow.
Extend air defence over Western Ukraine and use it to cover coalition troops on the ground: Air defence assets based in coalition countries or sent to states bordering Ukraine can provide a shield over Western Ukraine and take some of the pressure off Ukrainian air defence assets. Russian missiles and drones are flying toward our borders and we can’t take chances. Coalition states could then use this shield to put their own troops on the ground, as proposed by French President Emmanuel Macron, to help train Ukrainian forces, provide logistical and de-mining support and conduct other tasks that would demonstrate our commitment to Ukraine’s victory and security.
Provide real security guarantees, including mutual defence, to shepherd Ukraine into NATO: Much as Sweden and Finland needed guarantees from strong partners while they waited for their NATO membership to be concluded, so too does Ukraine. The coalition can commit, now, to mutual defence with Ukraine in the intervening period after the end of the current hostilities. It can use that time to help drive interoperability and coordination, accelerating Ukraine’s path into the alliance, which it would strengthen. An unambiguous coalition commitment, backed up by growing capabilities, would deter future Russian attacks on Ukraine – and ourselves.
Show we can stand up for ourselves: The coalition can commit to each spend at least three per cent of GDP on defence annually, and to joint procurement of the critical enablers that Europe and Canada lack, including through common borrowing. But the war, and our credibility, must be won on other fronts too. Europeans’ and Canadians’ economic advantage over Russia must be leveraged and strategically targeted to be meaningful. The coalition should move to tighten – and enforce – sanctions, but also work to defeat Russia economically, turning the screws to cripple its creaking war machine. China must be shown that its support for Russia’s war is unacceptable and that it cannot buy us off.
Whatever the final composition of the Trump administration, and whatever policies or predilections it pursues, a coalition of willing states can set the Euro-Atlantic area on a more secure path. By taking the steps outlined here, Europeans and Canadians would show how we can pull our weight in NATO while simultaneously insuring against any decrease in US capability commitment in Europe.
‘Ukraine Will Never Capitulate and Peace Plans Won’t Work – Now Is the Time to Put the Boot Into Russia’
Paul Niland explains why Trump’s talk of a ‘deal’ for peace will never work
Paul Niland
We can show how to be good allies as the US pivots to keep China in check, and demonstrate that deterring China in Taiwan begins with deterring Russia across Europe and defeating it in Ukraine.
Time is of the essence and so we, the signatories of this letter, urge European states and Canada to embrace their power, quickly form a coalition of the willing and, together, take these steps – for Ukraine’s security and our own.
Signatories
Toomas Hendrik Ilves, President of Estonia (2006-2016); Professor, Tartu University
Egils Levits, President of Latvia (2019-2023), European Court of Justice (2004-2019)
The Rt. Hon Sir Ben Wallace, fmr Secretary of State for Defence of the United Kingdom
The Rt. Hon. Sir David Lidington, fmr. UK Minister of State for Europe and Deputy to the Prime Minister. Currently Chair of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)
Kajsa Ollongren, former Minister of Defence of the Netherlands
Dr Artis Pabriks, fmr. Foreign and Defence Minister of Latvia
Hon. Chris Alexander PC, former Minister for Citizenship and Immigration, Parliamentary Secretary for National Defence and Canadian Ambassador to Afghanistan
Lt.Gen (retd.) Ben Hodges, fmr. Commander US Army Europe
Air Marshal (retd.) Greg Bagwell, Royal Air Force
Air Marshal (retd.) Edward Stringer, Royal Air Force
Maj. Gen. (retd.) Mick Ryan AM, fmr. Commandant, Australian Defence College
Margaret Atwood, Writer
Prof. Eliot Cohen, former Counsellor of the Department of State (USA, 2007-2009)
Dr. Anna Wieslander, Director for Northern Europe, Atlantic Council & Chair of the Board, ISDP
Garry Kasparov, Founder of the Renew Democracy Initiative and fmr World Chess Champion
Dr Thomas Enders, President, German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), Berlin
François Heisbourg, Special Advisor, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique, Paris
Prof. Phillips O’Brien, University of St. Andrews
Lt.Col (retd.) Dr Alexander Vindman, fmr US Army and National Security Council
Prof. Katarzyna Pisarska, Chair of the Warsaw Security Forum & the Pulaski Foundation
Prof. Nathalie Tocci, Director, Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI), fmr special advisor to EU HRVP
Żygimantas Pavilionis MP, Deputy Speaker of the Lithuanian Parliament, and Lithuanian Ambassador to the US (2010-15)
Marko Mihkelson MP, Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Estonian Parliament
Prof. Stephen Gethins MP, University of St Andrews and UK House of Commons
Mr Alex Vanopslagh MP, Chair of the Liberal Alliance Party, Denmark
Lia Quartapelle MP, Partitio Democratico, Italian Chamber of Deputies
EXCLUSIVE
Lobbyists, Oligarchs and Power: The Pro-Putin Network Raising Fears of Foreign Influence in Trump’s Team
There is growing evidence of links between senior Trump appointees, associates, and Kremlin-linked entities
Zarina Zabrisky
The Hon. Senator Ratna Omidvar, Senator for Ontario, Senate of Canada
Rihards Kols MEP, Committee on Foreign Affairs, European Parliament & fmr Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Latvian parliament (2018-24)
Dr. Ivars Ijabs MEP, Industry, Energy & Research Committee & Delegation for US Relations, European Parliament
Prof. Marlene Wind, Professor of Politics & Law, University of Copenhagen & Special Advisor to EU HRVP
Roman Waschuk, fmr. Canadian Ambassador to Serbia and to Ukraine
Adam Kinzinger, former member, US House of Representatives
André Gattolin, former French Senator
Viola von Cramon-Taubadel, former Member of the European Parliament, Germany
Edward Lucas, CEPA Senior Fellow & Columnist, The Times
Roland Paris, Professor, University of Ottawa & fmr foreign policy advisor to Canada’s Prime Minister
John Sipher, fmr. CIA clandestine service & Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council
Dr Benjamin Tallis, Director, Democratic Strategy Initiative, Berlin
Dr Nona Mikhelidze, Senior Fellow, EU, Politics and Institutions (EU and Eastern Neighbourhood) Global Actors (Russia), Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI)
Paul Mason, Journalist and Author
Aaron Gasch Burnett, Fellow and Project Manager, Democratic Strategy Initiative, Berlin
Jacob Kaarsbo, Independent Security Policy Advisor and former Danish intelligence officer.
Dr Edward Hunter Christie, Senior Research Fellow Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Rosemary Thomas, fmr. British Ambassador to Belarus
Nicolas Tenzer, guest professor at Sciences Po Paris, author of Our War: Crime and Oblivion
Prof. Maximilian Terhalle, Visiting Scholar, Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Minna Ålander, Research Fellow, Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Prof Carlo Masala, University of the Bundeswehr, Munich.
ENJOYING THIS ARTICLE? HELP US TO PRODUCE MORE
Receive the monthly Byline Times newspaper and help to support fearless, independent journalism that breaks stories, shapes the agenda and holds power to account.
PAY ANNUALLY – £39.50 A YEAR
PAY MONTHLY – £3.75 A MONTH
MORE OPTIONS
We’re not funded by a billionaire oligarch or an offshore hedge-fund. We rely on our readers to fund our journalism. If you like what we do, please subscribe.
Dr Gustav Gressel, Senior Fellow European Council on Foreign Relations, Berlin
Fredrik Wesslau, Distinguished Policy Fellow, Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies
James Nixey, Director of the Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House
Dr Andreas Fulda, Associate Professor, University of Nottingham
Ian Bond, Deputy Director, Centre for European Reform
James Sherr OBE, International Centre for Defence Studies, Tallinn
Jonathan Berkshire Miller, Director of Foreign Affairs, National Security & National Defence, Macdonald Laurier Institute
Terry Virts, Colonel USAF (retd.) Former Astronaut and ISS Commander
Denver Riggelman, fmr member, US House of Representatives & fmr US Air Force intelligence officer
Stewart McDonald, former MP for Glasgow South, former SNP spokesperson for defence
Dr Jochen Kleinschmidt, Chair of International Politics, TU Dresden
Dr Emma Salisbury, Senior Fellow, Council on Geostrategy
Ed Arnold, Senior Research Fellow for European Security RUSI
Michael Weiss, Investigative Journalist and Author
Alex Finley (pen name), Author and CIA (retd.)
Ed Bogan, CIA (retd.)
Marc Polymeropoulos, CIA (retd.)
Dr Ruth Deyermond, King’s College London
Dr Balkan Devlen, Transatlantic Program Director & Senior Fellow, Macdonald-Laurier Institute
Dr Jan-Willem Roepert, Lt.Col (ret.) Bundeswehr & Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Democratic Strategy Initiative, Berlin
Dr Alexander Lanoszka, Associate Professor, University of Waterloo
Dr Benjamin L. Schmitt, Senior Fellow, University of Pennsylvania; Associate, Harvard-Ukrainian Research Institute
Dr Pierre Haroche, Assoc Prof. European & International Politics, Université Catholique de Lille
Dr Matthew Ford, Associate Professor in War Studies, Swedish Defence University, Stockholm
Dan Kaszeta, Fellow of the Royal Historical Society
Dr Ian Garner, Assistant Professor, Pilecki Institute, Warsaw
Alun Davies MS, Member of the Senedd/ Welsh Assembly
Mick Antoniw MS, Member of the Senedd/ Welsh Assembly, fmr Counsel General Wales
Prof. Richard Whitman, Professor, University of Kent, Canterbury
Richard Shimooka, Senior Fellow, Macdonald-Laurier Institute, Canada
Dr Andreas Umland, Stockholm Centre for East European Studies
This open letter was organised by the Democratic Strategy Initiative and was drafted by a group of experts including Benjamin Tallis, Aaron Gasch Burnett, Jacob Kaarsbo and Edward Hunter Christie.
WRITTEN BY
Benjamin Tallis
Dr Benjamin Tallis is Director of the Democratic Strategy Initiative, a Berlin think tank established to address Europe’s strategic deficit and develop the strategies needed to win the systemic competition against authoritarian regimes.
谢选骏指出：人説“欧洲和加拿大必须忘记特朗普，组成一个愿意保卫乌克兰的联盟”——我看俄羅斯根本不經打！俄國才14000萬人口，抵消掉烏克蘭的4000萬人口，不過剩下1個億，比德國一個國家都多不了多少了——如果面對歐洲聯盟，根本不經打！特朗普帝國，可以龜縮靠邊站了，等著自產自銷吧。
没有评论:
发表评论